Commentary
Attempts at understanding and divining the markets.
Passive Investing Is an Active Bet
The S&P 500 now behaves like a 45-stock portfolio. Whether passive money caused that is genuinely contested, but the position it leaves you holding is not in dispute, and nobody chose it.
Analyzing the effects of tariffs on prices and inflation
Tariffs are taxes on imports, and the evidence says Americans pay most of them. Whether they explain ongoing inflation is a narrower and much harder question.
Why has the Buffett Indicator Been Rising for Twenty Years?
The ratio has roughly doubled since 2006 and sits above every previous peak. The largest single reason is that the thresholds everyone quotes were calibrated on an economy whose corporate profit share no longer exists.