markets
Markets
Notes on money, markets, and the economy.
3 topics · 6 pieces
All explainers Explainers
Sometimes I'm not sure I understand something completely, so I write it out. Read at your own risk.
Bondsstart at the top
- What Are Bonds? A Beginner's GuideA bond is a loan dressed up as an investment. What that means, some terminology worth knowing, and why bond prices move.
- Bond DurationDuration estimates how much a bond's price moves when interest rates do. This post shows how this is measured and what the impact can be.
- A Field Guide to U.S. Treasury SecuritiesBills, notes, bonds, TIPS, FRNs, I Bonds, EE Bonds. Same borrower, different terms. What each one actually is and how to tell them apart.
Marketsstart at the top
- What Is the Efficient Market Hypothesis?A good company is not always a good investment. How market prices absorb information, why beating them is difficult, and where the efficient market hypothesis falls short.
- Alpha, Beta, and Gamma: The Greeks of InvestingWhat it means to be long beta, where alpha might come from, and how a gamma squeeze can move a stock—even if you never trade options.
Economystart at the top
4 pieces
All commentary Commentary
Attempts at understanding and divining the markets.
5 indicators
All trends Trends
Charting out long-running market trends, and speculating on what they mean.
- Labor and Capital’s Shares of Gross Domestic Income1947–2026quarterly50.3percent of GDIas of
- The U.S. Federal Deficit, Trailing 12 Months1981–2026monthly1,945.7billions of dollarsas of
- Bitcoin Priced in Gold2010–2026monthly15.64ounces of goldas of
- The S&P 500 Priced in Gold1871–2026monthly1.75ounces of goldas of
- The Buffett Indicator, 1947 to Today1947–2026quarterly218.1percent of GDPas of
3 model portfolios
All model portfolios Model Portfolios
Portfolio allocations, the rules behind them, and how they have behaved through different markets.
Tactical momentum01
GEM Momentum
Antonacci GEM: S&P 500 absolute momentum gate, then S&P 500 vs international relative momentum, else aggregate bonds.
Next-period signal · July 31, 2026
100% International ex-U.S. stocks
- Annualized return
- 10.98%
- Worst drawdown
- −21.80%
Monthly rebalanceExplore
Core allocation02
Three-Fund 60/20/20
Bogleheads-style allocation: 60% total U.S. stock market, 20% international stocks, and 20% aggregate bonds, rebalanced monthly.
Target allocation
60% Total U.S. stock market · 20% International ex-U.S. stocks · 20% Aggregate bonds
- Annualized return
- 8.47%
- Worst drawdown
- −43.78%
Monthly rebalanceExplore
Defensive allocation03
Permanent Portfolio
Harry Browne-style allocation: 25% stocks, 25% long-term Treasuries, 25% gold, and 25% Treasury bills, rebalanced annually.
Target allocation
25% S&P 500 stocks · 25% Long-term U.S. Treasuries · 25% Gold · 25% Treasury bills
- Annualized return
- 7.42%
- Worst drawdown
- −15.14%
Annually rebalanceExplore
Hypothetical backtests · Jan 2002 – Jul 2026 · Monthly observations, zero modeled trading costs.