Defensive allocation Preview
Permanent Portfolio
Harry Browne-style allocation: 25% stocks, 25% long-term Treasuries, 25% gold, and 25% Treasury bills, rebalanced annually.
- Annualized return
- 7.42% Jan 2002 – Jul 2026
- Worst drawdown
- −15.14% Largest month-end decline from a peak
- Annual volatility
- 6.89% Based on monthly returns
The allocation
Target allocation
Let weights drift during the year, then restore the targets at December month-end for the following month. The weights below are the targets.
- S&P 500 stocks
- 25%
- Long-term U.S. Treasuries
- 25%
- Gold
- 25%
- Treasury bills
- 25%
Month-end weights · July 31, 2026
- S&P 500 stocks
- 27.36%
- Long-term U.S. Treasuries
- 24%
- Gold
- 23.26%
- Treasury bills
- 25.38%
Growth of $10,000
Jan 2002 – Jul 2026 · Monthly total returns, with income reinvested. Both start at $10,000 immediately before the first return month.
The track record
Returns, year by year
Calendar-year total returns through July 31, 2026. Asterisks mark partial years.
View annual return table
| Year | Permanent Portfolio | S&P 500 Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 5.23% | −22.10% |
| 2003 | 13.01% | 28.68% |
| 2004 | 6.18% | 10.88% |
| 2005 | 8.24% | 4.91% |
| 2006 | 11.31% | 15.79% |
| 2007 | 12.67% | 5.49% |
| 2008 | −1.80% | −37.00% |
| 2009 | 9.64% | 26.46% |
| 2010 | 13.48% | 15.06% |
| 2011 | 10.41% | 2.11% |
| 2012 | 6.63% | 16.00% |
| 2013 | −2.21% | 32.39% |
| 2014 | 9.37% | 13.69% |
| 2015 | −2.63% | 1.38% |
| 2016 | 5.49% | 11.96% |
| 2017 | 11.25% | 21.83% |
| 2018 | −1.61% | −4.38% |
| 2019 | 16.65% | 31.49% |
| 2020 | 15.39% | 18.40% |
| 2021 | 5.16% | 28.71% |
| 2022 | −11.51% | −18.11% |
| 2023 | 12.05% | 26.29% |
| 2024 | 12.82% | 25.02% |
| 2025 | 23.04% | 17.88% |
| 2026 (partial) | 0.63% | 10.14% |
| Period | Permanent Portfolio | S&P 500 Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| 1 year | 12.91% | 19.56% |
| 3 years | 13.02% | 19.32% |
| 5 years | 7.30% | 12.86% |
| 10 years | 7.17% | 15.08% |
The approach
How it works
Harry Browne-style allocation: 25% stocks, 25% long-term Treasuries, 25% gold, and 25% Treasury bills, rebalanced annually.
- Start with 25% S&P 500 stocks, 25% Long-term U.S. Treasuries, 25% Gold, 25% Treasury bills.
- Let weights drift during the year, then restore the targets at December month-end for the following month.
- Keep the target allocation fixed; there is no market-timing signal.
Reading the results
Methodology & limitations
A fixed allocation still changes in value as its assets rise and fall. Diversification does not prevent losses.
A common comparison window. The figures use 295 monthly returns over Jan 2002 – Jul 2026. Every model and S&P 500 Stocks use the same dates, with growth rebased to the same starting balance.
Hypothetical results. No additional trading commissions, slippage, or taxes are modeled. Fund proxies may already include fund expenses. Drawdowns use month-end observations and can miss larger losses within a month.
Data behind this model and its comparison.
- S&P 500 stocks: Yahoo ^SP500TR S&P 500 Total Return index
- Long-term U.S. Treasuries: Yahoo VUSTX Vanguard Long-Term Treasury adjusted NAV
- Gold: Yahoo GC=F COMEX gold futures adjusted close
- Treasury bills/cash: FRED DGS3MO daily rate-derived returns
Source: Model Portfolio Backtester export through July 31, 2026. The site displays a validated data release; values update when a new export is imported.