Tactical momentum Preview
GEM Momentum
Antonacci GEM: S&P 500 absolute momentum gate, then S&P 500 vs international relative momentum, else aggregate bonds.
- Annualized return
- 10.98% Jan 2002 – Jul 2026
- Worst drawdown
- −21.80% Largest month-end decline from a peak
- Annual volatility
- 12.24% Based on monthly returns
The allocation
Next-period signal · July 31, 2026
This model allocation was selected on July 31, 2026 for the following month. It is a historical signal, not a live holding.
- International ex-U.S. stocks
- 100%
Growth of $10,000
Jan 2002 – Jul 2026 · Monthly total returns, with income reinvested. Both start at $10,000 immediately before the first return month.
The track record
Returns, year by year
Calendar-year total returns through July 31, 2026. Asterisks mark partial years.
View annual return table
| Year | GEM Momentum | S&P 500 Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 8.43% | −22.10% |
| 2003 | 23.31% | 28.68% |
| 2004 | 21.36% | 10.88% |
| 2005 | 17.11% | 4.91% |
| 2006 | 27.16% | 15.79% |
| 2007 | 17.12% | 5.49% |
| 2008 | −6.75% | −37.00% |
| 2009 | 11.71% | 26.46% |
| 2010 | 5.52% | 15.06% |
| 2011 | 0.67% | 2.11% |
| 2012 | 11.45% | 16.00% |
| 2013 | 31.01% | 32.39% |
| 2014 | 13.69% | 13.69% |
| 2015 | −6.49% | 1.38% |
| 2016 | 6.68% | 11.96% |
| 2017 | 21.73% | 21.83% |
| 2018 | −7.81% | −4.38% |
| 2019 | 19.06% | 31.49% |
| 2020 | 2.42% | 18.40% |
| 2021 | 24.99% | 28.71% |
| 2022 | −16.73% | −18.11% |
| 2023 | 7.03% | 26.29% |
| 2024 | 25.02% | 25.02% |
| 2025 | 14.50% | 17.88% |
| 2026 (partial) | 14.43% | 10.14% |
| Period | GEM Momentum | S&P 500 Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| 1 year | 27.57% | 19.56% |
| 3 years | 18.46% | 19.32% |
| 5 years | 9.75% | 12.86% |
| 10 years | 10.01% | 15.08% |
The approach
How it works
Antonacci GEM: S&P 500 absolute momentum gate, then S&P 500 vs international relative momentum, else aggregate bonds.
- At month-end, compare the trailing 12-month total return of S&P 500 stocks with Treasury bills.
- If U.S. stocks meet or exceed Treasury bills, choose the stronger of U.S. and international ex-U.S. stocks. A tie goes to U.S. stocks.
- If U.S. stocks fall behind Treasury bills, allocate to aggregate bonds.
- Hold the selected asset for the following month, then repeat.
Inside the last signal
International ex-U.S. stocks
On July 31, 2026, the model selected this asset for the following month using these trailing 12-month returns.
- S&P 500 stocks
- 19.56%
- International ex-U.S. stocks
- 29.07%
- Treasury bills/cash
- 3.84%
Reading the results
Methodology & limitations
The model can switch after a decline has already happened, and a quick reversal can leave it behind. Aggregate bonds can also lose value.
A common comparison window. The figures use 295 monthly returns over Jan 2002 – Jul 2026. Every model and S&P 500 Stocks use the same dates, with growth rebased to the same starting balance.
Hypothetical results. No additional trading commissions, slippage, or taxes are modeled. Fund proxies may already include fund expenses. Drawdowns use month-end observations and can miss larger losses within a month.
Data behind this model and its comparison.
- S&P 500 stocks: Yahoo ^SP500TR S&P 500 Total Return index
- International ex-U.S. stocks: MSCI ACWI ex USA GROSS public levels
- Aggregate bonds: Yahoo VBMFX Vanguard Total Bond Market adjusted NAV
- Treasury bills/cash: FRED DGS3MO daily rate-derived returns
Source: Model Portfolio Backtester export through July 31, 2026. The site displays a validated data release; values update when a new export is imported.